Ever since inflation showed its ugly head, economists have been arguing about whether it is a temporary problem or a structural problem. Some economists even make a distinction between “good” inflation and “bad” inflation. But political scientists look at inflation from the point of view of how it affects the American voter, which makes the problem much clearer. The effect on working-class voters could be bad for Democrats in the midterm elections.

As long as inflation keeps going up, the Biden administration can’t turn a blind eye to what people are going through every day. The vast majority of Americans say that inflation is a big worry. But as prices have gone up in the most visible parts of the economy, like food, gas, and electricity, the effects have been different for Americans with low and high incomes.

Think about it like this: Some people add up the cost of each item as they put it in their shopping cart to make sure they have enough money to pay when they get to the checkout counter. Others just put the things they want in their carts without thinking about how much it will cost. These two groups are very different. For the first group, inflation is a daily worry, especially at the gas station and the grocery store, two places most Americans can’t avoid. Americans with higher incomes should worry about inflation, but it doesn’t hurt them as much.

It’s not surprising that 13% of people without a college degree say they are having a hard time, and 40% say they are having a hard time. For people with a college degree, the effects aren’t as bad; only 4% say they’re having a hard time and 26% say they’re having a moderate time.

The most affected by inflation are also the key swing voters in the last two presidential elections. This is because a big education gap has opened up between the two parties since the last two elections.

So, the government shouldn’t have too many political hopes, at least in the short term. People’s opinions about the economy tend to change much later than the economy itself, so the inflation rate would have to drop quickly by this spring at the latest for people to change their minds about how the government is handling this problem. Based on what we know from the past, it is unlikely that the current rise in inflation will end quickly.

Getting the rate of inflation down will have a big political effect on the 2024 presidential election, but the government will need a lot of luck to do this before the midterms in 2022.